{"id":344,"date":"2020-02-11T16:26:54","date_gmt":"2020-02-11T08:26:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/singledoggy.investments\/?p=344"},"modified":"2020-02-11T16:26:54","modified_gmt":"2020-02-11T08:26:54","slug":"baupost-2019-%e8%82%a1%e6%9d%b1%e4%bf%a1-%e2%94%80%e2%94%80-%e7%8f%be%e5%9c%a8%e9%9c%80%e8%a6%81%e7%9a%84%e6%98%af%e8%80%90%e5%bf%83%e5%92%8c%e7%b4%80%e5%be%8b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/singledoggy.investments\/2020\/02\/11\/baupost-2019-%e8%82%a1%e6%9d%b1%e4%bf%a1-%e2%94%80%e2%94%80-%e7%8f%be%e5%9c%a8%e9%9c%80%e8%a6%81%e7%9a%84%e6%98%af%e8%80%90%e5%bf%83%e5%92%8c%e7%b4%80%e5%be%8b\/","title":{"rendered":"Baupost 2019 \u80a1\u6771\u4fe1 \u2500\u2500 \u73fe\u5728\u9700\u8981\u7684\u662f\u8010\u5fc3\u548c\u7d00\u5f8b"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" class=\" size-full wp-image-347 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/singledoggy.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/seth-klarman-1.jpg?resize=780%2C520&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Seth Klarman\" width=\"780\" height=\"520\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><strong>\u524d\u8a00<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">Baupost \u662f\u4e00\u5bb6\u8457\u540d\u7684\u907f\u96aa\u57fa\u91d1\uff0c\u638c\u8235\u8005\u662f\u5927\u540d\u9f0e\u9f0e\u7684\u50f9\u503c\u6295\u8cc7\u4ebaSeth Klarman\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">Klarman\u591a\u5e74\u524d\u66fe\u5beb\u904e\u4e00\u672c\u66f8\u53eb\u300aMargin of Safety\u300b\uff0c\u7ffb\u6210\u4e2d\u6587\u5c31\u662f\u5b89\u5168\u908a\u969b\u7684\u610f\u601d\u3002\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u73fe\u5728\u5df2\u7d55\u7248\uff0c\u5728\u4e9e\u99ac\u905c\u4e0a\u6700\u4fbf\u5b9c\u552e\u50f9\u4e5f\u8981\u4e0a\u5343\u584a\u7f8e\u91d1\uff0c\u53ef\u898b\u4ed6\u5728\u6295\u8cc7\u754c\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u6709\u591a\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Seth Klarman \u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u65b9\u5f0f\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u4e09\u500b\u57fa\u790e\u4e0a\uff1a<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"text-align:justify;\">\u5c08\u6ce8\u5728\u5831\u916c\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u5148\u5c08\u6ce8\u5728\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u98a8\u96aa\u4e0d\u662f\u6ce2\u52d5\u6027\uff0c\u6ce2\u52d5\u6027\u53cd\u800c\u662f\u5275\u9020\u6a5f\u6703\u3002 \u98a8\u96aa\u662f\u8667\u640d\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u5728\u8667\u640d\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u4f60\u80fd\u627f\u53d7\u591a\u5c11\u640d\u5931\u3002<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align:justify;\">\u5c08\u6ce8\u5728\u7d55\u5c0d\u5831\u916c\u800c\u975e\u76f8\u5c0d\u5831\u916c (\u5f88\u591a\u7d93\u7406\u4eba\u7e3e\u6548\u662f\u8ddf\u6307\u6578\u6bd4\u8f03\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u6015\u843d\u5f8c\u6307\u6578\u56e0\u800c\u505a\u51fa\u4e0d\u4f73\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\u3002)<\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align:justify;\">\u7531\u4e0b\u800c\u4e0a(bottom-up) \u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7531\u4e0a\u800c\u4e0b (top-down)\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0b\u9762\u662f Seth Klarman 2019\u5e74\u80a1\u6771\u4fe1\u7684\u91cd\u9ede\u6574\u7406\u3002<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">Baupost\u57282019\u5e74\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u9ad8\u500b\u4f4d\u6578\u7684\u5831\u916c\u7387\u3002\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u5e7e\u5e74\u4e2d\uff0cBaupost\u76f8\u5c0d\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u8868\u73fe\u6709\u4e9b\u4f4e\u8ff7\uff0c\u4f46Seth Klarman\u4ecd\u7136\u5c0dBaupost\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u65b9\u6cd5\u5145\u6eff\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5e36\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u66b4\u6f32\u7684\u706b\u7bad\u5f88\u5feb\u5c31\u8981\u6c92\u6cb9\u4e86\uff0c\u7562\u7adf\u96f6\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u6703\u9577\u671f\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u6ce2\u52d5\u4e5f\u52e2\u5fc5\u6703\u518d\u6b21\u51fa\u73fe\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">\u8a31\u591a\u201c\u4f4e\u4f30\u503c\u8cc7\u7522\u201d\u4eca\u5929\u9762\u81e8\u7684\u554f\u984c\u662f\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\u8868\u73fe\u5f37\u52c1\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u7684\u8868\u73fe\u4e5f\u5927\u5e45\u843d\u5f8c\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u3002\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u768412\u5e74\u4e2d\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u6642\u9593\u88e1\uff0c\u8cc7\u672c\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u4f4e\u4f30\u503c\u7b56\u7565\u4e2d\u64a4\u51fa\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u4f4e\u4f30\u503c\u80a1\u7968\u5927\u5e45\u8dd1\u8f38\u5927\u76e4\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u81ea2007\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u7f85\u7d201000\u6307\u6578\u5e74\u56de\u5831\u7387\u70ba6.6%\uff0c\u800c\u7f85\u7d20\u6210\u9577\u6307\u6578\u5247\u70ba11.0%\u3002\u81ea2017\u5e74\u4e2d\u4ee5\u4f86\u50f9\u503c\u80a1\u5e74\u5316\u5831\u916c9.5%\uff0c\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u6210\u9577\u80a1\u7684\u5e74\u5316\u5831\u916c\u9054\u523018.5%\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">\u9019\u7a2e\u73fe\u50cf\u4e0d\u53ea\u51fa\u73fe\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u5728\u6b50\u6d32\u6210\u9577\u80a1\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u6ea2\u50f9\u5df2\u7d93\u7a81\u78342000\u5e74\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u9ede\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u6a5f\u69cbVerdad Research\u6307\u51fa\uff0c2019\u5e74\u5927\u578b\u80a1\u548c\u9ad8\u4f30\u503c\u80a1\u7968\u5927\u5e45\u8dd1\u8d0f\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u9019\u8207\u904e\u53bb30\u5e74\u9593\u7684\u8868\u73fe\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u540c\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">Verdad Research\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5927\u578b\u7684\u6307\u6578\u57fa\u91d1\uff08\u57fa\u65bc\u8a2d\u8a08\u898f\u5247\uff09\u548c\u5927\u578b\u5171\u540c\u57fa\u91d1\uff08\u57fa\u65bc\u9700\u6c42\uff09\u6301\u7e8c\u5c07\u8cc7\u91d1\u6295\u5165\u5230\u5927\u578b\u80a1\u3002\u5728\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\uff0c\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1\u5927\u5e45\u8dd1\u8f38\u7a0b\u5ea6\u66f4\u56b4\u91cd\u7684\u6642\u523b\u53ea\u6709\u5169\u6b21\uff0c\u5206\u5225\u662f\u57281929\u5e74\u5927\u856d\u689d\u4e4b\u524d\u548c1999\u5e74\u79d1\u6280\u6ce1\u6cab\u6700\u56b4\u91cd\u7684\u6642\u5019\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">\u50f9\u503c\u80a1\u9762\u81e8\u6301\u7e8c\u7684\u62cb\u552e\u58d3\u529b\u5c0e\u81f4\u5176\u5b9a\u50f9\u932f\u8aa4\uff0c\u9019\u4e5f\u5e36\u7d66\u9577\u671f\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u4e00\u4e9b\u6f5b\u5728\u6a5f\u6703\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">Benjamin Graham\u548cDavid Dodd\u5728\u300a\u8b49\u5238\u5206\u6790\u300b\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\uff0c<strong>\u80a1\u5e02\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u662f\u6295\u7968\u6a5f\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u9577\u671f\u5247\u662f\u9ad4\u91cd\u8a08\u3002<\/strong>\u4f46\u5728\u5f88\u77ed\u7684\u6642\u9593\u5167\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u628a\u5b83\u770b\u4f5c\u4e00\u53f0ATM\u53d6\u6b3e\u6a5f\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">\u8b49\u5238\u50f9\u683c\u80fd\u5920\u4e5f\u78ba\u5be6\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f9e\u516c\u53f8\u50f9\u503c\u4e2d\u5206\u96e2\u958b\u4f86\u9019\u4e00\u9ede\u4f9d\u820a\u662f\u6210\u7acb\u7684\u3002\u4eba\u5011\u51fa\u65bc\u5404\u7a2e\u539f\u56e0\u8cb7\u8ce3\u8b49\u5238\u6642\uff0c\u8caa\u5a6a\u548c\u6050\u61fc\u59cb\u7d42\u626e\u6f14\u8457\u91cd\u8981\u89d2\u8272\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">\u5f9e\u9577\u9060\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u660e\u986f\u7684\u932f\u8aa4\u5b9a\u50f9\u6700\u7d42\u6703\u5f97\u5230\u7cfe\u6b63 \u2014 \u4f01\u696d\u7684\u80a1\u50f9\u548c\u50f9\u503c\u6700\u7d42\u6703\u8da8\u65bc\u4e00\u81f4 \u2014 \u56e0\u70ba\u6bcf\u7576\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u5e7b\u60f3\u7834\u6ec5\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u672c\u8cea\u7279\u5fb5\u624d\u6703\u986f\u73fe\u51fa\u4f86\u3002\u63db\u53e5\u8a71\u8aaa\uff0c<strong>\u50f9\u683c\u662f\u4f60\u652f\u4ed8\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u50f9\u503c\u624d\u662f\u4f60\u6700\u7d42\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img class=\" size-full wp-image-356 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/singledoggy.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/36736141_10157661968321110_8124100785513431040_n.jpg?resize=516%2C286&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Price is what you pay value is what you get\" width=\"516\" height=\"286\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">\u6709\u6642\u5728\u50ac\u5316\u5291\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u4e0b\uff0c\u50f9\u683c\u548c\u50f9\u503c\u6703\u8da8\u65bc\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u7576\u4f01\u696d\u88ab\u51fa\u552e\u6642\uff0c\u79c1\u4eba\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u50f9\u683c\u5f80\u5f80\u6703\u51cc\u99d5\u65bc\u516c\u958b\u5e02\u5834\u4e4b\u4e0a\u3002\u6709\u6642\uff0c\u50f9\u683c\u548c\u50f9\u503c\u7684\u878d\u5408\u662f\u7de9\u6162\u7684\uff0c\u7576\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u76c8\u5229\u80fd\u529b\u8b49\u660e\u4e86\u5176\u5167\u5728\u50f9\u503c\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u516c\u53f8\u5728\u5176\u4f4e\u4f30\u7684\u6642\u5019\u901a\u904e\u80a1\u7968\u56de\u8cfc\u9010\u6f38\u8b93\u50f9\u683c\u56de\u6b78\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">\u57282019\u5e749\u6708\u81f3\u5e74\u5e95\u4e4b\u9593\uff0c\u7d93\u904e\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u64f4\u5f35\u7d42\u65bc\u7e2e\u6c34\u7684\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u8cc7\u7522\u8ca0\u50b5\u8868\u7a81\u589e4000\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u52a9\u529b\u4e86\u80a1\u5e02\u56db\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684\u5f37\u52c1\u53cd\u5f48\u3002\u96a8\u8457\u7f8e\u570b\u5e74\u5ea6\u9810\u7b97\u8d64\u5b57\u9054\u5230\u9a5a\u4eba\u7684\u4e00\u5146\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u63a8\u52d5\u4e86\u5168\u5e74\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\uff0c\u4e5f\u7121\u7591\u5275\u9020\u4e86\u5c31\u696d\u6a5f\u6703\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u5931\u696d\u7387\u57289\u6708\u4efd\u9054\u523050\u5e74\u4f4e\u9ede\u76843.5%\u3002\u5118\u7ba1\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u5e02\u5834\u8da8\u7dca\uff0c\u4f462019\u5e74\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u7e3d\u9ad4\u4e0a\u4ecd\u8655\u65bc\u4f4e\u8ff7\u72c0\u614b\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">2019\u5e74\u88e1\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u5f9e2018\u5e74Q4\u7684\u4f4e\u8ff7\u4e2d\u5f97\u4ee5\u5fa9\u7526\uff0c\u96a8\u8457\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u80a1\u5e02\u5f37\u52c1\u53cd\u5f48\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u8cc7\u7522\u6307\u6578\u5728Q4\u5c62\u5275\u6b77\u53f2\u65b0\u9ad8\u3002S&amp;P 500\u6307\u6578\u57282019\u5e7460%\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u65e5\u4e2d\u90fd\u51fa\u73fe\u4e86\u4e0a\u6f32\uff0c\u6210\u5206\u80a1\u4e2d90%\u51fa\u73fe\u4e86\u4e0a\u6f32\uff1b\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u5347\u503c\u4e8620%\u6216\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u800c16%\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u6f32\u5e45\u8d85\u904e50%\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">\u5728\u9019\u4e9b\u6536\u76ca\u9762\u524d\uff0cCNN\u6050\u61fc\u8207\u8caa\u5a6a\u6307\u6578\u5728\u6beb\u7121\u61f8\u5ff5\u7684\u5e74\u5e95\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u8a55\u4f30\uff1a\u6975\u7aef\u8caa\u5a6a\u3002\u300a\u83ef\u723e\u8857\u65e5\u5831\u300b\u6700\u8fd1\u5831\u5c0e\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u5947\u602a\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\uff0c2019\u5e74\u6709\u5c07\u8fd140%\u7684\u4e0a\u5e02\u516c\u53f8\u6c92\u6709\u76c8\u5229\u3002S&amp;P 500\u6307\u6578\u7684\u589e\u9577\u4e3b\u8981\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u860b\u679c\u548c\u5fae\u8edf\u5169\u96bb\u80a1\u7968\u4e0a\uff0c\u50c5\u9019\u5169\u96bb\u80a1\u7968\u5c31\u69cb\u6210\u4e86S&amp;P 500\u5927\u7d0415%\u7684\u6f32\u5e45\u3002S&amp;P 500\u8fd1\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u7684\u6f32\u5e45\u53d7\u76ca\u65bc\u6f32\u5e45\u6700\u5927\u7684\u5341\u96bb\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u80a1\u4f4d\u5c45\u699c\u9996\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\"><strong>ETF\u548c\u6307\u6578\u57fa\u91d1\u57282019\u5e74\u9054\u52306\u5146\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u9996\u6b21\u8d85\u904e\u4e3b\u52d5\u57fa\u91d1\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u7e3d\u8cc7\u7522<\/strong>\u3002\u7f8e\u9280\u7f8e\u6797\u8fd1\u671f\u6307\u51fa\uff1a\u201c\u5728\u5168\u7f8e\u8a3b\u518a\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u4e2d\u670945%\u70ba\u88ab\u52d5\u8cc7\u7522\u6240\u6301\u6709\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u8cb7\/\u8ce3\u4e0d\u7531\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u6c7a\u5b9a\uff0c\u800c\u7531\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u6c7a\u5b9a\u3002\u201d\u4e3b\u52d5\u7684\u5171\u540c\u57fa\u91d1\u6301\u7e8c\u51fa\u73fe\u5927\u91cf\u8cc7\u91d1\u5916\u6d41\uff0c\u8cc7\u91d1\u5927\u591a\u6d41\u5165\u4e86ETF\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img class=\"  wp-image-366 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/singledoggy.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/coins-currency-investment-insurance-128867.jpeg?resize=521%2C348&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"silver and gold coins\" width=\"521\" height=\"348\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">\u81f3\u4eca\uff0c\u5f88\u5c11\u6709\u50b3\u7d71\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u6559\u79d1\u66f8\u6703\u8a8d\u771f\u8a0e\u8ad6\u8ca0\u5229\u7387\u3002\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u5728\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u5f9e\u672a\u51fa\u73fe\u904e\u8ca0\u503c\u3002\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u5e0c\u671b\u5c07\u5229\u7387\u964d\u4f4e\u5230\u96f6\u4ee5\u4e0b\uff0c\u9019\u5c07\u8feb\u4f7f\u8cc7\u672c\u5f9e\u6240\u8b02\u7684\u201c\u5b89\u5168\u201d\u8cc7\u7522\uff08\u5982\u9ad8\u8a55\u7d1a\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u5238\uff09\u4e2d\u64a4\u51fa\uff0c\u4e26\u8f49\u800c\u6295\u5411\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u7372\u5f97\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u63d0\u632f\u7d93\u6fdf\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u9577\u671f\u63a5\u8fd1\u65bc\u96f6\u7684\u5229\u7387\u96d6\u7136\u7121\u6cd5\u63a8\u52d5\u9810\u671f\u589e\u9577\u6216\u901a\u81a8\uff0c\u537b\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u683c\u3002\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u985e\u4f3c\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u6240\u8aaa\u7684\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u9677\u9631\uff0c\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u5bec\u9b06\u653f\u7b56\u7121\u6cd5\u5e36\u4f86\u80fd\u7522\u751f\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">\u5229\u7387\u7684\u9010\u6b65\u4e0b\u8dcc\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u70ba\u63d0\u5347\u80a1\u50f9\u4e86\u6709\u529b\u652f\u6490\u3002\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u9019\u4e5f\u52a0\u5287\u4e86\u8ca1\u5bcc\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\uff0c\u4e26\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u52a0\u5287\u4e86\u6c11\u7cb9\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u5d1b\u8d77\u3002\u4e8b\u5be6\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u8ca0\u5229\u7387\u5c0d\u9280\u884c\u696d\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u5c24\u70ba\u56b4\u91cd\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u9280\u884c\u696d\u7121\u6cd5\u7dad\u6301\u6046\u5b9a\u7684\u5229\u7387\u6c34\u6e96\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">\u6b50\u6d32\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u5229\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\u6700\u660e\u986f\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u4e0d\u50c5\u6578\u5146\u6b50\u5143\u7684\u6b50\u6d32\u4e3b\u6b0a\u50b5\u52d9\u4ea4\u6613\u51fa\u73fe\u8ca0\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e00\u4e9b\u516c\u53f8\u767c\u884c\u7684\u50b5\u5238\uff0c\u6301\u6709\u4eba\u9084\u8981\u5411\u767c\u884c\u4eba\u9032\u884c\u652f\u4ed8\u4f86\u53d6\u5f97\u6301\u6709\u50b5\u52d9\u7684\u6b0a\u529b\u3002\u751a\u81f3\u57282015\u5e74\u9055\u7d04\u4e26\u9032\u884c\u4e86\u50b5\u52d9\u91cd\u7d44\u7684\u5e0c\u81d8\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u50b5\u52d9\u8207GDP\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u4ecd\u70ba180%\u7684\u4eca\u5929\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u767c\u884c\u8ca0\u5229\u7387\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u7968\u64da\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">\u8907\u5229\u5f88\u591a\u6642\u5019\u88ab\u8a8d\u70ba\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u7b2c\u516b\u5927\u5947\u8e5f\u3002\u5982\u679c\u771f\u7684\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u6211\u5011\u8a72\u600e\u9ebc\u770b\u201c\u8ca0\u8907\u5229\u201d\u5462\uff1f\u904e\u53bb\u6211\u5011\u5b58\u9322\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u7406\u7531\u662f\u6703\u96a8\u8457\u6642\u9593\u589e\u503c\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u4f34\u96a8\u8457\u6642\u9593\u8cb6\u503c\u5462\uff1f<strong>\u5982\u679c\u6b63\u5229\u7387\u4ee3\u8868\u201c\u91d1\u9322\u7684\u6642\u9593\u50f9\u503c\u201d\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u8ca0\u5229\u7387\u662f\u5426\u610f\u5473\u8457\u91d1\u9322\u7684\u201c\u6642\u9593\u6210\u672c\u201d\uff1f<\/strong>\u8ca0\u5229\u7387\u80cc\u5f8c\u7684\u908f\u8f2f\u548c\u884c\u70ba\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\u4e26\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u7406\u89e3\u3002\u50b3\u7d71\u7684Black-Scholes\u6a21\u578b\u4e5f\u7121\u6cd5\u6e96\u78ba\u5b9a\u50f9\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5728\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u8cc7\u91d1\u662f\u6709\u6210\u672c\u7684\u3002\u8ca0\u5229\u7387\u9084\u6703\u5e36\u4f86\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5f71\u97ff\uff1f\u5c0d\u65bc\u201c\u66f4\u4f4e\u66f4\u4e45\u201d\u7684\u9810\u671f\u6703\u5c0e\u81f4\u8a31\u591a\u9ad8\u80a1\u606f\u8cc7\u7522\u5177\u6709\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"  wp-image-368 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/singledoggy.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/pexels-photo-3322471.jpeg?resize=386%2C514&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"low angle photo of high rise building\" width=\"386\" height=\"514\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">\u7f8e\u570b\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u5916\u50b5\u5f9e2007\u52302019\u5e74\u7ffb\u500d\uff0c\u9054\u5230\u4e8610\u842c\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u898f\u6a21\uff0c\u662f47%\u7684\u6574\u500b\u7d93\u6fdf\u898f\u6a21\u3002\u62b5\u62bc\u8cb8\u6b3e\u7684\u767c\u884c\u81ea\u5f9e2007\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u589e\u9577\u4e868\u500d\uff0c\u800c\u5168\u7403\u79c1\u52df\u50b5\u6b0a\u81ea\u5f9e2010\u5e74\u589e\u9577\u4e86156%\u3002BBB\u6295\u8cc7\u8a55\u7d1a\u50b5\u5238\u7684\u8cc7\u91d1\u4f54\u6bd4\u5f9e\u5341\u5e74\u524d30%\u63d0\u9ad8\u5230\u4e8650%\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002\u622a\u6b62\u52302019\u5e74\u7684\u524d\u5341\u6708\uff0c\u65b0\u767c\u50b5\u5238\u4e2d\u670965%\u4f86\u81eaBBB\u8a55\u7d1a\u50b5\u5238\u3002\u800c\u81ea\u5f9e2010\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u4f4e\u8a55\u7d1a\u7684CCC\u5783\u573e\u50b5\u5238\u767c\u884c\u91cf\u4e5f\u6bd410\u5e74\u524d\u589e\u9577\u4e862.3\u500d\u3002\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u4f01\u696d\u5783\u573e\u50b5\u767c\u884c\u4e5f\u57282019\u5e74\u9054\u5230\u5275\u7d00\u9304\u76841184\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u6bd45\u5e74\u524d\u7ffb\u500d\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">\u572812\u6708\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u9280\u884c\u8b66\u544a\u767c\u5c55\u4e2d\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u50b5\u52d9\u9054\u5230\u4e8655\u842c\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u50b5\u52d9\u548cGDP\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5e73\u5747\u70ba170%\uff0c\u6bd42010\u5e74\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e8654%\uff0c\u8b93\u9019\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u6bd4\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u524d\u66f4\u8106\u5f31\u3002\u56db\u5206\u4e4b\u4e09\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u4e2d\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u5b58\u5728\u8ca1\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u57fa\u65bc\u6d77\u5916\u8ca8\u5e63\u7684\u50b5\u52d9\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5728\u63d0\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u5165\u5230\u4e86PE\u548cVC\uff0c\u5275\u9020\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u6ce1\u6cab\u3002\u5178\u578b\u7684\u4ee3\u8868\u662f2019\u5e74\u8edf\u9280\u5c0d\u65bcWeWork\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u3002\u7576\u6642\u8edf\u9280\u901a\u904e\u898f\u6a21\u63a5\u8fd11000\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u9858\u666f\u57fa\u91d1\u5c0d\u5176\u6295\u8cc7\u3002Leonard Green\u767c\u884c\u4e86\u6700\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u7684PE\u57fa\u91d1\uff0c\u9054\u5230\u4e86120\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u30022019\u5e74\u524d10\u500b\u6708PE\u80a1\u6b0a\u57fa\u91d1\u52df\u8cc7\u91d1\u984d\u5df2\u7d93\u6bd4\u56db\u5e74\u524d\u7ffb\u500d\u3002VC\u76ee\u524d\u5750\u64c12760\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5e7e\u4e4e\u662f2012\u5e74\u7684\u4e09\u500d\u30022019\u5e74\u9ed1\u77f3\u5b8c\u6210\u4e86205\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u623f\u5730\u7522\u57fa\u91d1\u7684\u52df\u96c6\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">\u7368\u89d2\u7378\uff08\u4f30\u503c\u5341\u5104\u7f8e\u91d1\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u65b0\u5275\u516c\u53f8\uff09\u662fVC\u6210\u529f\u7684\u7522\u7269\u3002\u65af\u5766\u798f\u5927\u5b78\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u77fd\u8c37\u8a31\u591a\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u6210\u529f\u4e26\u975e\u4f86\u81ea\u5546\u696d\u6210\u5c31\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4f86\u81ea\u5e36\u4f86\u9ad8\u4f30\u503c\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u4f7f\u79c1\u52df\u80a1\u6b0a\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u6210\u500d\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u5728\u79c1\u52df\u80a1\u6b0a\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\u652f\u4ed8\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u57282019\u5e74\u53c8\u4e00\u6b21\u5275\u6b77\u53f2\u65b0\u9ad8\uff08\u5f9e2007\u5e74\u76849.7\u500dEBITDA\u4e0a\u5347\u81f32017\u5e74\u768410.6\u500d\u548c2018\u5e74\u81f32019\u5e74\u4e2d\u671f\u9054\u523011.1\u500d\uff09\u3002\u6beb\u7121\u7591\u554f\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u5834\u9577\u9054\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u7e41\u69ae\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u5192\u96aa\u4f3c\u4e4e\u8b8a\u5f97\u7121\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f7f\u79c1\u52df\u80a1\u6b0a\u8cc7\u7522\u985e\u5225\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6bd4\u6574\u500b\u7e41\u69ae\u8207\u856d\u689d\u7684\u5468\u671f\u7684\u51fa\u73fe\u66f4\u5177\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u904e\u5269\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0d\u5be6\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u7522\u751f\u5ee3\u6cdb\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u5fb7\u91cc\u514b\u00b7\u6e6f\u666e\u68ee\u5728\u300a\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u300b\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\u7684\u90a3\u6a23\uff1a\u201c\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u5728\u5361\u65af\u73c0\uff08Casper\uff09\u5e8a\u588a\u4e0a\u9192\u4f86\uff0c\u5c31\u53eb\u4e00\u8f1bLyft\u4f86WeWork\u8fa6\u516c\uff0c\u7528DoorDash\u8a02\u9910\u9001\u9032\u8fa6\u516c\u5ba4\uff0c\u53eb\u53e6\u4e00\u8f1bLyft\u56de\u5bb6\uff0c\u8b93Uber Eats\u9001\u4f86\u665a\u9910\uff0c\u5168\u5929\u60a8\u90fd\u5728\u8207\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u6253\u4ea4\u9053\uff0c\u800c\u9019\u4e9b\u516c\u53f8\u4e00\u5e74\u88e1\u5c07\u4e00\u5171\u640d\u5931\u5c07\u8fd1130\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u800c\u5927\u591a\u6578\u4f01\u696d\u662f\u4e0d\u516c\u4f48\u5229\u6f64\u6216\u5f9e\u672a\u5be6\u73fe\u904e\u76c8\u5229\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">\u5118\u7ba1\u5927\u591a\u6578\u4eba\u5c07Netflix\uff0cUber\uff0cLyft\u751a\u81f3Tesla\u8996\u70ba\u7576\u4eca\u7d93\u6fdf\u5f62\u52e2\u4e0b\u7684\u5091\u51fa\u6210\u529f\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u4f46\u4eba\u5011\u5fc5\u9808\u8003\u616e\u4e00\u7a2e\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff08\u5373\u4fbf\u5b83\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u6709\u9650\uff09\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u5011\u5c0d\u9019\u4e9b\u516c\u53f8\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u201c\u6210\u529f\u201d\u5728\u67d0\u7a2e\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u662f\u6d77\u5e02\u8703\u6a13\u7684\u4e00\u9685\uff0c\u9019\u4e0d\u662f\u5c0d\u80a1\u6771\u7684\u50f9\u503c\u5275\u9020\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u88ab\u7121\u9650\u91cf\u8cc7\u672c\u9700\u6c42\u6240\u9a45\u52d5\u7684\u5c0d\u9b31\u91d1\u9999\u7403\u8396\u7684\u5b9a\u50f9\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">\u975e\u516c\u958b\u6301\u6709\u7684\u7368\u89d2\u7378\u516c\u53f8WeWork\u7a81\u7136\u66b4\u8dcc\uff0c\u4f30\u503c\u9583\u73fe470\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u9019\u8868\u660e\u73fe\u5be6\u4e16\u754c\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u754c\u4e4b\u9593\u6709\u6642\u5b58\u5728\u8457\u56b4\u5cfb\u7684\u4ea4\u96c6\u3002\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u754c\uff0cWeWork\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u50b2\u4eba\u7684\u6210\u7e3e\uff0c\u5176\u5275\u59cb\u5f15\u767c\u4e86\u8f5f\u52d5\u3002\u4f46\u516c\u53f8\u64a4\u56deIPO\u4e26\u6025\u9700\u8cc7\u91d1\u6ce8\u5165\u6642\uff0c\u5927\u80a1\u6771\u8edf\u9280\u7684\u6551\u63f4\u6ce8\u8cc7\u4f7f\u5f97\u516c\u53f8\u4f30\u503c\u4e0d\u8db380\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u8207\u6b64\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u8a72\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u5275\u59cb\u4eba\u5e36\u845717\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u51fa\u8d70\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u4ed6\u6210\u70ba\u4e86\u8cc7\u672c\u904e\u5269\u7684\u7e2e\u5f71\u3002<strong>WeWork\u4e5f\u6642\u523b\u8b66\u9192\u8457\u6211\u5011\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u6559\u8a13\u662f\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u88ab\u907a\u5fd8\u7684\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u9031\u671f\u53ef\u4ee5\u6301\u7e8c\u5341\u5e74\u6216\u66f4\u4e45\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4eba\u5011\u5f80\u5f80\u50be\u5411\u65bc\u77ed\u671f\u5957\u5229\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6b63\u598290\u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\u81f320\u4e16\u7d00\u521d\u8a31\u591a\u88ab\u9ad8\u4f30\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u4e00\u6a23\uff0cWeWork\u672c\u662f\u4e00\u5bb6\u5e73\u6de1\u7121\u5947\u7684\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u537b\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u98a8\u96aa\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u52a0\u6301\u3001\u6280\u8853\u7684\u8ce6\u80fd\u8207\u672a\u4f86\u5275\u65b0\u8005\u7684\u9752\u775e\u9019\u5e36\u7d66\u4e86\u5b83\u7121\u9650\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002WeWork\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u5c07\u81ea\u5df1\u63cf\u8ff0\u70ba\u4e00\u500b\u4f9d\u8cf4\u65bc\u627f\u79df\u4eba\u9032\u884c\u77ed\u79df\u7372\u53d6\u4f4e\u5229\u6f64\u7684\u623f\u6771\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5728SEC\u5099\u6848\u6587\u4ef6\u4e2d\u8a87\u8a87\u5176\u8ac7\uff0c\u5c07\u81ea\u5df1\u63cf\u8ff0\u70ba\u201c\u4e00\u5bb6\u81f4\u529b\u65bc\u6700\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u5730\u5728\u5168\u7403\u7522\u751f\u5f71\u97ff\u7684\u8ce6\u6709\u4f7f\u547d\u7684\u793e\u5340\u2026\u4f86\u6539\u5584\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u8a8d\u77e5\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"  wp-image-370 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/singledoggy.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/wework-investigation-layoffs.jpg?resize=533%2C320&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"wework-investigation-layoffs\" width=\"533\" height=\"320\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u4e0d\u65b7\u626d\u66f2\u8457\u8cc7\u672c\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u67d0\u4e9b\u4ee4\u4eba\u77a0\u76ee\u7d50\u820c\u7684\u4f30\u503c\u3002PE\u4e0d\u65b7\u4e0a\u6f32\uff0cS&amp;P 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\/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><strong>\u7d50\u8ad6<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">\u5728\u9019\u500b\u5e02\u5834\u6cb8\u9a30\u7684\u6642\u4ee3\uff0cSeth Klarman \u4f9d\u820a\u4fdd\u6301\u4ed6\u8eab\u70ba\u50f9\u503c\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u4e00\u8cab\u7684\u7406\u6027\u548c\u8b39\u614e\u3002\u9019\u6ce2\u50cf\u706b\u7bad\u822c\u7684\u725b\u5e02\u662f\u5426\u771f\u6703\u50cf\u4ed6\u8aaa\u7684\u4e00\u6a23\u5f88\u5feb\u5c31\u8981\u6c92\u6cb9\u4e86\uff0c\u6c92\u4eba\u80fd\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u7b46\u8005\u4e5f\u8a8d\u70ba\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u77e5\u9053\u3001\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5fc5\u8981\u53bb\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u600e\u9ebc\u9810\u6e2c\u90fd\u4e0d\u6703\u6e96\uff0c\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u8981\u4fdd\u6709\u8010\u5fc3\u548c\u7d00\u5f8b\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">\u4f60\u80fd\u5920\u62b5\u6297\u6b21\u4f73\u6295\u8cc7\u6a5f\u6703\u7684\u8a98\u60d1\uff0c\u8010\u5fc3\u7b49\u5f85\u4e00\u8a18\u597d\u7403\u55ce\uff1f\u5728\u725b\u5e02\u6f32\u4e0d\u505c\u6642\uff0c\u4f60\u80fd\u5920\u7dad\u6301\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7d00\u5f8b\u4e0d\u8ddf\u96a8\u7fa4\u773e\u760b\u72c2\u55ce\uff1f\u7576\u5929\u4e0a\u6389\u4e0b\u4e00\u5806\u9322\u7684\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u4f60\u6709\u4e8b\u5148\u6e96\u5099\u597d\u76c6\u5b50\u4f86\u63a5\u55ce\uff1f<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:justify;\">2000\u5e74\u7684\u7db2\u8def\u6ce1\u6cab\u6642\uff0c\u7d22\u7f85\u65af\u7684\u91cf\u5b50\u57fa\u91d1\u9996\u5e2d\u5927\u5c07Stanley Druckenmiller\u5c31\u56e0\u70ba\u6575\u4e0d\u904e\u5fc3\u9b54\u88ab\u591a\u7a7a\u96d9\u5df4\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u57fa\u91d1\u5de8\u984d\u8667\u640d\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u9eef\u7136\u4e0b\u53f0\u3002\u6709\u8208\u8da3\u7684\u8b80\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u53bb\u67e5\u67e5\u9019\u500b\u503c\u5f97\u5f15\u4ee5\u70ba\u6212\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u6545\u4e8b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u6709\u6027\u683c\u7684\u4eba\u624d\u80fd\u62ff\u8457\u73fe\u91d1\u5750\u5728\u90a3\u88e1\u4ec0\u9ebc\u4e8b\u4e5f\u4e0d\u505a\uff0c\u6211\u80fd\u6709\u4eca\u5929\uff0c\u9760\u7684\u662f\u4e0d\u53bb\u8ffd\u9010\u5e73\u5eb8\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u2500\u2500 \u67e5\u7406\u8499\u683c<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"  wp-image-296 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/singledoggy.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/105189545-_y2a2327c.jpg?resize=481%2C326&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Charlie Munger\" width=\"481\" height=\"326\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" 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